| Parameter | Source | LSHTM | Simulation.jl |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latent period | 2, 3, 4 | \[ \footnotesize{d_E: \Gamma(\mu=4.0,k=4)} \] | - |
| Pre-Clinical Infectiousness Duration | 5 | \[ \footnotesize{d_P: \Gamma(\mu=1.5,k=4)} \] | - |
| Clinical Infectiousness Duration | 2, 3, 4 | \[ \footnotesize{d_C: \Gamma(\mu=3.5,k=4)} \] | - |
| Subclinical Infectiousness Duration Assumed to be the same duration as total infectious period for clinical cases, including preclinical transmission |
1 | \[ \footnotesize{d_S: \Gamma(\mu=5.0,k=4)} \] | - |
| Hospitalization | - | \[ \footnotesize{d_H: 1} \] | - |
| Incubation period | 1 | \[ \footnotesize{d_E+d_P; \mu=5.5} \] | - |
| Relative infectiousness of subclinical cases | 1 | \[ \footnotesize{f = 50\%} \] | - |
| UK Contact Matrices Number of age- \(j\) individuals contacted by age- \(i\) individual per day |
6 |
\[ \footnotesize{c_{ij}:} \]
covidm/data/all_matrices.rds |
- |
| Number of age- \(i\) individuals | 6 | \[ \footnotesize{N_i} \] | - |
| Proportion of hospitalised cases requiring critical care | 7 | \[ \footnotesize{30\%} \] | - |
| Serial Interval | 2, 3, 4 | \[ \footnotesize{d_E + \tfrac{1}{2}(y_i(d_P+d_C)+(1-y_i)d_S) = 6.5} \text{ days} \] | - |
| Delay from onset to hospitalization | 7, 8 | \[ \footnotesize{\Gamma(\mu=7,k=7)} \] | - |
| Duration of hospitalization | 7 | \[ \footnotesize{\Gamma(\mu=10,k=10)} \] | - |
| Proportion of hospitalized cases requiring critical care | 7 | \[ \footnotesize{30\%} \] | - |
| Delay from onset to death | 7, 8 | \[ \footnotesize{\Gamma(\mu=22,k=22)} \] | - |
| \[ \footnotesize{dIp} \] | - |
1 The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study, N. G. Davies et. al, 2020, Table S1, pg. 23.
2: Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia, L. Q. Guan et. al., 2020, N Engl J Med. 2020;382: 1199-1207.
3: Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts, medRxiv. 2020;2020.03.03.20028423.
4: Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections, medRxiv. 2020; 2020.02.03.20019497
5: The contribution of pre-symptomatic infection to the transmission dynamics of COVID-2019, Liu Y et. al, Wellcome Open Research. 2020;5:58.
6: Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases, J. Mossong et. al, PLoS Med. 2008;5 e74.
7: A Trial of Lopinavir-Ritonavir in Adults Hospitalized with Sever Covid-19, B. Cao et. al, N Engl H Med. 2020. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2001282.
8: Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis Of Publicly Available Case Data, N. M. Linton et. al, J Clin Med Res. 2020;9. doi:10.3390/jcm9020538.